Bitcoin ETF Approval Chances Soar to 90%, Bloomberg Intelligence Reports

In a significant turn of events for the cryptocurrency world, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have revealed that the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has surged to an impressive 90%. This newfound optimism stems from recent developments, including a legal victory for Grayscale Investments LLC and promising updates from other ETF applicants.

Grayscale’s Legal Victory Paves the Way

Grayscale Investments LLC recently achieved a pivotal legal victory in federal court, as it sought to transform its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into the first U.S.-based ETF that directly invests in Bitcoin. This triumph bolstered the chances of Bitcoin ETF approval, as it opened the door for similar initiatives. The SEC, facing a deadline to appeal the ruling, has opted not to pursue further appeals in the case.

Positive Signals from ARK and 21Shares

In addition to Grayscale’s triumph, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts point to an encouraging development in the application from ARK and 21Shares. They suggest that this update indicates a “constructive conversation” with the SEC, further solidifying the possibility of Bitcoin ETF approval. With these recent developments, analysts are now closely monitoring the unfolding process.

Key Bitcoin ETF Applicants as of October 15th, 2023

As of the time of writing, several noteworthy Bitcoin ETF applicants are actively seeking approval from the SEC. Here is an overview of some of the key Bitcoin ETF applicants and their respective application statuses:

  1. BlackRock: BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF on June 15, 2023, with Coinbase as the crypto custodian. They manage over $8 trillion in assets.
  2. VanEck: VanEck has a history in this space, with filings in 2018 and 2020. In July 2023, they applied again, aiming for trading on the Cboe BZX Exchange.
  3. GlobalX: GlobalX entered the race in 2021 and renewed their application in August 2023. Notably, Coinbase is their surveillance-sharing partner.
  4. ARK and 21Shares: Both filed for a Bitcoin ETF in May 2023. The SEC extended their approval deadline in June 2023, and a recent update shows progress.
  5. Grayscale Investments LLC: Grayscale won a federal court case to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a US-based ETF. The SEC chose not to appeal. Their success sets a precedent.

Understanding Bitcoin ETFs

A Bitcoin ETF, short for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund, is an investment vehicle designed to track the price of Bitcoin without the need for investors to own the cryptocurrency directly. Instead, it achieves this by utilizing derivatives, spot markets, or holding Bitcoin assets.

A specific type of Bitcoin ETF, known as a Bitcoin Futures ETF, functions like a mutual fund. However, its primary purpose is to follow the price movements of Bitcoin and create a tradable security on an exchange. Bitcoin Futures ETFs issue publicly traded securities that offer exposure to the price fluctuations of Bitcoin futures contracts.

Presently, the underlying assets within Bitcoin ETFs are Bitcoin futures contracts, which are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This structure enables investors to benefit from Bitcoin’s price movements while sidestepping the complexities of owning and storing the cryptocurrency.

what is a bitcoin etf

Pros and Cons of Bitcoin ETFs


  1. Simplicity: Investing in a Bitcoin ETF is straightforward and does not require investors to navigate the intricacies of buying, storing, and securing Bitcoin.
  2. Regulation: ETFs are subject to regulation by the SEC, which can provide a level of security and oversight that some investors find reassuring.
  3. Accessibility: Bitcoin ETFs open the doors for retail and institutional investors to participate in the cryptocurrency market without the technical know-how or infrastructure required for direct ownership.


  1. Indirect Ownership: Investors in Bitcoin ETFs do not own actual Bitcoin; instead, they hold shares of the ETF that track the cryptocurrency’s price. This means they miss out on the benefits of direct ownership, such as holding their private keys.
  2. Futures Contracts: Most Bitcoin ETFs rely on futures contracts, which may not perfectly mirror the spot market’s performance and can result in tracking errors.
  3. Costs: ETFs typically come with management fees that can eat into profits over time, making them less cost-effective for long-term investors compared to direct ownership.

Read more about what is a Bitcoin ETF here.

In conclusion, the surge in optimism surrounding Bitcoin ETF approval, driven by Grayscale’s legal victory and positive signals from other applicants, marks a significant development in the cryptocurrency landscape. While Bitcoin ETFs offer an accessible and regulated way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements, it’s essential to weigh the pros and cons carefully before considering this investment option. The crypto community now eagerly awaits further developments in the approval process, which could potentially open the floodgates to a new era of cryptocurrency investment.

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